What Do Swing-State Voters Want?
June 29, 2015
One of the hallmarks of America’s presidential campaigns is candidates crisscrossing the country and pledging to compete for every vote. Those who have already announced they’re running (a baker’s dozen on the Republican side) are sticking to this formula. But given the structure of America’s Electoral College, the 2016 race is likely to hinge on voters in a handful of key battleground states. So a fundamental question for this campaign is, what do swing-state voters want?
A new survey recently released by the Economic Innovation Group (for which one of us serves on the Economic Advisory Board) offers some bracing answers. In marked contrast to the aggregate economic improvement, voters in eight swing states are anxious: about their jobs, their economic future, and the direction of the country. And their hopes for solutions lie not in Washington, but rather in entrepreneurs and investors.
Start with swing-states gloom. Sixty-three percent of swing-state voters surveyed think the country overall is on the wrong track, versus just 32 percent who see it moving in the right direction. Much of this stems from economic worries. Yes, according to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, June marks the 73rd month of economic expansion. Yet 61 percent rate the national economy as not good or poor, versus just 38 percent who deem it good or excellent. The NBER notwithstanding, a remarkable 40 percent think America is still in a recession.
This gloom is especially concentrated in communities in swing states where economic performance has been especially poor. In these distressed communities, only 14 percent think the country is moving in the right direction, only 16 percent rate the national economy as good or excellent, and 56 percent say the country overall remains in recession.
Economic anxiety centers on jobs, finances, and the future. Yes, since the labor market bottomed in 2010, over 11.7 million payroll jobs have been created in America. Yet 68 percent report that good jobs are hard to find where they live—a share that rises to 80 percent for those living in distressed communities. Yes, thanks to historic Fed easing and other forces, the net worth of American households and nonprofits has surged, from its 2008 trough of $31.7 trillion to $82.9 trillion today. Yet only 26 percent report that they and their family feel financially more secure today than a few years ago. And when contemplating their children’s prospects, only 34 percent expect their children will attain a better standard of living in adulthood.
Who offers hope to lift all this anxiety? Not Washington. Fully 78 percent disagree with how policymakers in Washington have handled the economic recovery. Looking ahead, a remarkable 80 percent think that policymakers and elected officials in Washington do not have solutions to America’s long-term economic problems.
Who these voters think can help are innovators in the private sector. Seventy-five percent agree that America should rely more on innovation entrepreneurs and investors to help solve the country’s long-term economic problems. What draws attention to innovators is their creation of new companies and jobs. Eighty-four percent of those surveyed state that encouraging the growth of new business will improve the lives of their families; just 61 percent cited aiding communities ailing from high unemployment and poverty. More than government assistance, people want the opportunity that many startups create: a new job, a good paycheck, and a brighter future.
Presidential aspirants ignore these new survey results at their peril. Every one of them on the trail is following James Carville’s legendary maxim that it’s “the economy, stupid.” But four out of five swing-state voters think none of them can help meet America’s deepest economic concerns. Every one of them would be well advised to focus on policies centered on new companies, not on Washington.
This will not be easy. Recent research shows that America today is already facing an ongoing, worrisome decline in the rate of new-business startups. In the early to mid-1980s, about 13 percent of all U.S. firms were newly started each year. Starting in the late 1980s, however, this startup rate began to decline; today only about 7 percent of all U.S. companies are startups. A consequence of this drop is that the share of U.S. employment at young firms has fallen—from about 19 percent in the early 1980s to barely 10 percent today.
The pro-growth policies needed are many. For example, America must address the ongoing obstacles that entrepreneurs face in establishing and growing businesses in distressed communities. Presidential candidates seeking to address voters’ concerns must present solutions to overcome these obstacles, such as access to capital. Which candidates are up to tasks like this?
Swing-state voters are yearning for the hopeful dynamism of innovation. Anyone yearning to be president better take heed.
Articles © 2015 Matthew Slaughter and Matthew Rees. All rights reserved.
Publication © 2015 Trustees of Dartmouth College. All rights reserved.